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@mountain_ghosts the "invisible hand" explanation is: invasion means less Russian gas, means less gas in general, means less supply and more demand, means people might not get gas if they don't pay more, means prices rise.
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@mountain_ghosts but the actual mechanics are probably as much that everyone expects this to happen and so adjusts their prices pre-emptively. also "the price" is both the price and also the obligation/option to buy it at a date in the future, which codifies the "guess what the market will say"
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@mountain_ghosts a game where you become very wealthy if you can guess in advance the same number everyone else will later guess