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@pozorvlak but even this post is using as a premise "a single AI system that is able to do more-or-less the same intellectual tasks as a human"! we already have AI that can surpass humans at certain tasks (heck, we've had that since we've had computers), so that's equivalent to my thing.
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@pozorvlak like, maybe AI progress will surprise me! but i do think i am reasonably well informed on the topic, and everything on AGI risks I've seen is at best very handwavey on this point.